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By Steve Tignor
Judging from the mood around the All England Club this weekend, I'm tempted to speculate that the 2008 men's Wimbledon final will be remembered not just as the match of a generation, but the peak of the tennis market before the unexpected-but-in-hindsight-inevitable crash. Like the colossal opening ceremonies at the Beijing Olympics, which took place a month before the bottom fell out of the stock market—would the Chinese spend $300 million for one night now?—Nadal-Federer '08 could become a sporting corollary to the End of Excess. Not just for the excessive quality of its play, but for the soon-to-be-extinct rain delays as well. With the new roof set to slide across Centre Court, it's hard to imagine a final ever lasting so long or finishing in dying sunlight again. It's hard to imagine the drama of any final ever being so excessive again.
 | Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images
British hopeful Murray is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Nadal's withdrawal. | |
Of course, the Great Recession and Nadal's knee tendinitis are about as disconnected as two events on this earth can be. But there's no doubt that the mood is subdued here, and one cursory glance at the men's draw will tell you why: The name at the very top of it is no longer Rafael Nadal, it's Juan Martin del Potro. With all due respect to the Argentine, it's kind of a letdown not to have the defending champion there. Even Federer and Andy Murray said as much in their press conferences yesterday.
If men's tennis in 2009 has taught us one thing, though, it's that all long-term prognostications in tennis are useless (I hope Wall Street has been watching). Coming into this year, would you have guessed with any degree of seriousness that Nadal would win the Australian Open and Federer the French? Two months ago, would you have guessed with any degree of seriousness that by June we'd be speculating that it would be Federer, rather than Nadal, who would last longer at the top of the sport?
With those chastening thoughts in mind, let's see if we can predict what will happen in men's tennis over the short term, like the next two weeks. You may think it's a futile activity, but I doubt you can stop your mind from thinking ahead. I doubt you would you want to stop it. I'll say this to start: After watching a day of practice, the grass here, while it may be firmer than it was in the brown and bumpy old days, is still a long way from the clay of Paris. The ball moves on this stuff, and anyone who wants to win on it better move too.
First Quarter
As stated, del Potro is the man at the top for the moment. He's listed as the 5th seed, but is in fact the 4th now. He doesn't have an easy road to the semis: On the other side of his section is Andy Roddick. In the second round, del Potro might get 2002 champ Lleyton Hewitt, then Dmitry Tursunov, no slouch on grass, and after that Roddick. As much as del Potro has improved and as reliable as he has become at winning matches he should win, I still don't see him going that far on grass yet. His swings are long, his agility is not his strong suit, and he's never been past the second round here. As for Roddick, I watched him in a hard practice with Sam Querrey today, and he wasn't showing any signs of ankle problems. His first round is not an easy one—Frenchman Jeremy Chardy can play on grass. After that, though, it looks like smooth sailing for the American. It's now or never for Roddick in 2009. As he said here last year, "It's like, win a Slam, or what?"
Potential second-round match to watch: Tursunov vs. Philipp Petzschner. I've always thought of the German, a hard-hitting, hard-edged guy, as a "poor man's Tursunov." Now he might get a chance to prove me wrong. Either way, it will be a bash. Whether it will be a fun one is harder to say with these two guys.
Semifinalist: Roddick
Second Quarter
Murray's path is not quite as uncluttered as you may have been led to believe. Yes, across his quarter is Gilles Simon, who has never been past the third round here. But closer to him is Fernando Gonzalez, who beat Murray in Paris and has been a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon; Ernests Gulbis, an explosive talent waiting to find the court; Marat Safin, a semifinalist here a year ago; and a couple of net-rushing Americans, Taylor Dent and Robert Kendrick, whom Murray will open against on Tuesday. Still, it's Murray's quarter to lose, and right now he seems to be of the Pete Sampras' "let's get to the grass and never speak of clay again" school of thought. The Scot looked formidable against second-tier competition in Queen's, but it will be that kind of competition he'll see for the first week at Wimbledon. I'd say only Gonzo could derail his trip to the final four.
Resurrected Yankee to watch: Taylor Dent
Semifinalist: Murray
 | Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images
Djokovic's name has been on the back burner lately, but he's a former Wimbledon semifinalist. | |
Third Quarter
Is Novak Djokovic a sleeper in the making? After being tapped as most likely to defeat Nadal at the French—remember those days?—he's officially the forgotten man in London. He's even said he's still recovering—mentally, I assume—from his titanic loss to Nadal in Madrid last month. But Djokovic may be better off than we think. He reached the final off a grass-court tune-up, and he looked pretty comfortable in practice today, snapping ground strokes off with a more penetrating topspin than I'd remembered from him. With his speed and ability to take the ball early, grass really should work for this guy. His quarter got a little lighter when del Potro was replaced by James Blake, a dangerous player who, fortunately for Djokovic, will likely lose before he has to face him.Maybe this should be dubbed the sleeper section. Tommy Haas, who beat Djokovic in that grass event, and 6-foot-6 Marin Cilic certainly qualify. Still, no one in this quarter looks ready to blow Djokovic off the court, the way Safin did in the second round in 2008.
First-round match to watch, if you can't get enough of two Russians hammering forehands at each other: Andreev vs. Korolev
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Fourth Quarter
Roger Federer began his practice today as he always does: casual to the point of deliberately careless, his many talents scattered all around the court and in the air rather than unified by the pressures and purposes of a match. He hit for 15 minutes with his tight new high-collared Nike jacket on, even though it didn't look like he could take a full swing in it.
Federer has reason to be casual for the moment. His early rounds look pretty breezy, especially his opener—he's taking over the 1:00 defending champion's slot tomorrow—versus Taiwan's Yen-Hsun Lu. But there's some power-hitting trouble on the horizon, first and foremost in the form of Robin Soderling. If they do face each other in the fourth round, I'd expect Soderling to play with more bullet-firing resolve than he did in Paris. And if it rains, look out: The Sod is a monster indoors.
But that will likely prove to be Federer's toughest assignment. Tsonga and Karlovic are here, and both pummel the ball. But neither has gone deep at Wimbledon. Ditto for the section's next-highest seed, Fernando Verdasco. He looked a little uncomfortable in practice today when he had to fend off a hard-hit ball that got to him in a hurry on the grass.
Federer struggled more than he ever has to reach the finals in Paris, walking a high wire through two five-setters and two four-setters. If he has lost half-a-step, it will show on grass. But if Federer's body isn't what it once was, his mind should make up for it. Federer should come to Wimbledon feeling relaxed and almost bullet-proof. For some players, this might be a recipe for a letdown; if the past is any guide, a relaxed Federer is the most dangerous Federer. Asked about his state of mind yesterday, he was the soul of shrugging simplicity: "Yeah, I feel, you know, good." Don't those sound like scary words to you?
First round matches to watch: Soderling vs. Gilles Muller, an upset specialist in his own right; Mahut vs. Vliegen—I like to watch both of these guys.
Semifinalist: Federer
Semifinals: Federer d. Djokovic; Murray d. Roddick
If it is Federer-Djokovic and then Federer-Murray, expect a couple of barn-burners. Both guys have had the upper hand over the Swiss at the Masters recently, but I feel like Federer will bring the high walls of the grass fortress up for this tournament, the way Sampras did at the All England Club in his declining years. The kind of pesky consistency that the Scot and the Serb used to drive Federer to his wit's—and one of his racquet's—end in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne shouldn't work as well at Wimbledon. As in Paris, someone is going to have to go out and beat the man and the legend for three sets on his favorite court—look how hard Nadal had to work to do it last year, even though he came in on the roll of his life. As in Paris, I don’t think Murray and Djokovic, as confident as they may consider themselves to be against Federer right now, are there yet.
Champion: Roger Federer
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