Wimbledon Preview -- Women: Who stops Venus?

For the men's Wimbledon preview, click here. By Steve Tignor Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images Venus has won five Wimbledon titles since 2000 and is the two-time defending champ. Is there a women’s tournament going on at Wimbledon this year? You might be hard-pressed to say for sure at the moment, with all the pre-game attention that the men’s side has been garnering. But the WTA is in London as well, and while they haven’t watched their first seed and defending champion pull out and head home, their draw remains as vexingly nebulous as ever. Dinara Safina is still at the top of that draw, but like Rafael Nadal, she comes to Wimbledon a wounded No. 1. Just when we thought the women had found someone to take the tour in hand, Safina suffered an 11th-hour meltdown in the final in Paris and proved again that there is no heiress apparent in sight. Wimbledon, however, has been the most predictable of the women’s Slams in recent years, and is currently owned by one of its long-established royals, Venus Williams. She’s just turned 29 and is coming in on the heels of another wretched French Open performance, but that hasn’t stopped her in the past. Do we dare pick anyone other than the Queen of All England? First Quarter Dinara Safina’s name fills the first line of the draw, but it looks shaky up there rather than intimidating. Besides the fact that she proclaimed herself a “chicken” in Paris, she has a 7-6 record at Wimbledon and has never been past the third round—there were tears during her defeat at the hands of Shahar Peer in 2008. Worse, Safina hasn’t been favored with a kind draw this year. Her conqueror at the French, Svetlana Kuznetsova, is in her quarter. Between them there are a few other names of note: Mauresmo, Szavay, Vaidisova, Chakvetadze, Lisicki, and Caroline Wozniacki. Kuznetsova, meanwhile, is hard to judge at Wimbledon; her explosiveness should help her on grass, but she’s never been past the quarterfinals. Judging by her dismal opening-round loss at a tune-up event last week, the queen of all-flake may have trouble turning right around and turning it on for another major so quickly. But if she can avoid an immediate meltdown, she could play herself into the tournament. Still, I’ll take Wozniacki instead. She’s reached the final in Eastbourne this week and held her own on Centre Court last year. What she lacks in firepower she’s begun to make up for in level-headed resilience. That may never be enough to get her a Slam title, but semifinals should be in her grasp. First-round match to watch: Wozniacki vs. former Wimbledon specialist Kimiko Date-Krumm. Semifinalist: Wozniacki Second Quarter The infamously independent-minded seeding committee at Wimbledon declined to move defending champion Venus Williams up from the No. 3 spot, which is a little surprising considering the disparity between her grass-court record and Safina’s. But on principle I don’t think the rankings should be messed with at all by the Slams, so I can’t say I disapprove. In any event, Williams has landed on the opposite side of the draw from her sister and in the vicinity of two fast-falling Serbs, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic. This is obviously a good spot for Venus, who typically has to pull an early rabbit out of a hat on an outer court during the first week before she struts into Centre Court and dominates the second week. The first signs of danger might come against Kaia Kanepi or perhaps Carla Suarez Navarro; then from French semifinalist Sam Stosur or Ivanovic; and then from either Li Na, Agnieszka Radwanska, or, if she finds some semblance of her old form in a hurry, Jankovic. I’m not seeing any obvious reason to cross the Queen. Wild card to watch: Alexa Glatch. The American has the heavy game for grass. Semifinalist: Venus Williams Ian Kington/AFP/Getty Images Dementieva is the highest seed in a wide-open third quarter of the draw. Third Quarter Judging from the top two seeds, Zvonareva and Dementieva, you might term this the dead zone of the women’s draw. Vera has had a good year, but has been injured, and while Dementieva reached the semis at Wimbledon in 2008, she never comes across as a threat to go all the way—mainly because she never has. The vast spaces between those two players are filled by, among others, Marion Bartoli, a former finalist, and . . . um . . . Virginie Razzano? Hey, she’s a finalist in Eastbourne right now. Cibulkova? She’s 0-1 at Wimbledon, and do we really think she can reach two straight Slam semis? Golden oldies like Sesil Karatantcheva or Karolina Sprem? The bottom line is: This is a very good spot for a sleeper to emerge. I just have no idea who it might be. Player to hear: Michelle Larcher de Brito. The press and the local noise-pollution authorities will be out in full force for her first-rounder against Klara Zakapalova. Semifinalist: Dementieva Fourth Quarter This, on the other hand, is a very lively zone. Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, grass-lover Jie Zheng, Nadia Petrova, and even automatic Wimbledon round-of-16er Tamarine Tanasugarn reside here. I’m guessing Serena comes in motivated and a little more grounded than she was in Paris; Maria rips away with nothing to lose; Jie burrows her way to a fourth-round encounter with Serena; and Vika, while she has been hurt, does the same on the other side, where should would face her spiritual godmother, Sharapova. The sparks and shrieks should fly. Sharapova, already the not-really-deserving beneficiary of a seeding upgrade, loves this place almost as much as the current champion. If she can avoid an upset out of the gates against Victoriya Kutuzova, who is playing well enough to have qualified, she could get on a Venus-like roll. Unfortunately for Sharapova, Serena Williams makes a habit of stopping her rolls dead in their tracks. First-round match to watch: 15-year-old English wild card Laura Robson vs. Daniela Hantuchova. More press mayhem. Semifinalist: Serena Williams Semifinals: S. Williams d. Dementieva; V. Williams d. Wozniacki Final: If it’s the sisters, I don’t see Serena allowing herself to play as indifferently and sloppily as she did last year. That match was a bitter pill for her to swallow, in part because she was ahead early and let it slip away, but even more so because on most other days she remains the superior player to Venus. And they both know it. Champion: Serena Williams

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